2024 Oscars predictions so far

 

- Cinarts24 

Best Picture

If the last few years have taught us anything, it's that the old rules regarding what can win best picture have been... obliterated. The past 4 winners in this category — Parasite, Nomadland, CODA and particularly last year's champ Everything Everywhere All At Once — each defied expectations in their own right, and have made it all the more difficult to make any assumptions about a film's chances based on their genre, language, release date or subject matter.

So basically, anyone who says Barbie can't be win because it's a movie based on a toy needs to check themselves. The primary thing actually stopping Barbie from seeming like a possible best picture winner isn't the Mattel factor — it's the fact that that girl has some wild competition. 

Going into the fall festivals, it seemed like there were already a quartet of films more or less locked into best picture nominations: Barbie; her zeitgeist counterpart Oppenheimer; the critical darling (and lowkey box office hit) of the spring, Past Lives; and Martin Scorsese's Killers of the Flowers Moon, which wowed audiences at the Cannes Film Festival in May ahead of its October release. It is still pretty safe to assume all 4 of those films will make the cut, though they have a battle on their hands thanks to the bevy of top-notch movies that debuted at Venice, Telluride and Toronto.

Yorgos Lanthimos' Poor Things, Bradley Cooper's Maestro, Ava DuVernay's Origin, Andrew Haigh's All of Us Strangers, Cord Jefferson's American Fiction, Alexander Payne's The Holdovers and Sofia Coppola's Priscilla all premiered to raves (and in many cases, major awards) at their respective festivals, and all made themselves known as potential Oscar players. Add that to a duo of international films that won major awards at Cannes (Anatomy of a Fall and The Zone of Interest) and two very Oscar-baity films no one has seen yet (The Color Purple and Napoleon) and we potentially have ourselves a race for the ages. 

(A) list of predictions:

American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall, Barbie, The Color Purple, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Past Lives, Poor Things

(B) list:

The Zone of Interest, All of Us Strangers, Asteroid City, Origin, Priscilla, Air, May/December, Napoleon, NYAD

Best Director

Film history was made this summer when Barbenheimer became a phenomenon, and it seems hard to deny the contributions of the two directors behind those films, Greta Gerwig and Christopher Nolan (neither of whom have ever won an Oscar). At this point, though, I wouldn't call either of their nominations assured (though Nolan's seems pretty close) given how much everyone seems to be delivering their very best in 2023. From Martin Scorsese and Yorgos Lanthimos to Alexander Payne and Ava DuVernay (not to mention newcomer Celine Song), the Academy's directing branch faces no easy task narrowing this down to 5.

(A) list of predictions:

Anatomy of a Fall (Justine Triet), Barbie (Greta Gerwig), Killers of the Flower Moon (Martin Scorsese), Oppenheimer (Christopher Nolan), Poor Things  (Yorgos Lanthimos)

(B) list:

The Zone of Interest (Jonathan Glazer), The Holdovers (Alexander Payne), Past Lives (Celine Song), Maestro (Bradley Cooper), Origin (Ava DuVernay)

Best Actress

Annette Bening has come so close (though not quite Glenn Close) to winning an Oscar multiple times that it seems cruel to suggest she might lose yet again after her fantastic work in the sports biopic NYAD. But while Hilary Swank (who infamously beat Bening twice) is not in the mix this year, a lot of really exceptional performances are: Lily Gladstone in Killers of the Flower Moon (who was just confirmed as going lead); Carey Mulligan in Maestro; Emma Stone in Poor Things; Margot Robbie in Barbie; Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor in Origin; Sandra Huller in Anatomy of a Fall; Greta Lee in Past Lives.

Bening certainly has a shot, but voters haven't seemed so down to give out "career Oscars" lately. Just ask Ms. Close, who just four years ago unexpectedly lost to Olivia Colman after Colman's showstopping performance in another Yorgos Lanthimos film, The Favorite. History could very well repeat thanks to Ms. Stone, whose work in Lanthimos' Poor Things has been met with universal acclaim from its festival screenings. 

(A) list of predictions:
Annette Bening (NYAD), Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon), Sandra Huller (Anatomy of a Fall), Carey Mulligan (Maestro), Emma Stone (Poor Things)

(B) list:
Greta Lee (Past Lives), Margot Robbie (Barbie), Fantasia Barrino (The Color Purple), Cailee Spaeny (Priscilla), Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (Origin), Natalie Portman (May/December)

Best Actor

While Glenn Close and Annette Bening are two people very commonly associated with being overdue for an Oscar, neither have been on as extensive a losing streak as Bradley Cooper. Cooper has been nominated 9 times without winning (and didn't even receive his first nomination until 2013!), compared to 8 and 4 for Close and Bening, respectively. Notably, though, only 4 of those nominations were for acting: Cooper was also nominated for producing American Sniper, Joker, Nightmare Alley and A Star is Born, as well as writing for the latter.

He stands a very good chance at adding upwards of 4 more nominations this year, all for his Leonard Bernstein biopic passion project Maestro, which he wrote, directed, produced and starred in. At this point, I'd argue his best shot at actually winning is in acting.

He has some intense competition, though: the best actor race is poised to be more stacked this year than it has been in a long time. And save Leonardo DiCaprio for his latest Scorsese collab Killers of the Flower Moon, most of Cooper's competition has also never won a golden boy: Paul Giamatti, Colman Domingo, Cillian Murphy, Jeffrey Wright and Andrew Scott. (In fact, save Giamatti, none of them have ever even been nominated before.)

(A) list of predictions:

Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Colman Domingo (Rustin), Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon), Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer), Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction)

(B) list:

Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers), Andrew Scott (All of Us Strangers), Barry Keoghan (Saltburn), Nicolas Cage (Dream Scenario), Joaquin Phoenix (Napoleon)

Best Supporting Actress

Speaking of actors who have been nominated before, can you believe that still applies to Emily Blunt? Somehow, she has never quite made the cut — but that seems very likely to change this year thanks to her performance as Kitty Oppenheimer. (She'd be the first woman ever nominated for a performance in a Christopher Nolan film, which is not unsurprising given Nolan hasn't exactly excelled at great female roles.)

Blunt's competition is filled with a mix of fellow potential first-timers (Danielle Brooks for The Colour Purple, Da'Vine Joy Randolph for The Holdovers), as well as previous winners (Jodie Foster for NYAD, Penelope Cruz in Ferrari, Viola Davis in Air). Of them, no frontrunner has really emerged as of yet, though if I had to make an early bet, it's on Randolph, who is extraordinary in what is arguably Alexander Payne's best film since Sideways. 

(A) list predictions:

Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer), Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple), Penelope Cruz (Ferrari), Jodie Foster (NYAD), Da'Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)

(B) list:

Viola Davis (Air), Taraji P. Henson (The Color Purple), Julianne Moore (May/December), Rosamund Pike (Saltburn), Rachel McAdams (Are You There God? It's Me, Margaret)

Best Supporting Actor

It's very unsual for the category with the most star wattage to be best supporting actor, but all signs point to just that. Robert DeNiro (Killers of the Flower Moon), Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer), Ryan Gosling (Barbie) and Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things) seem like very safe bets to all get nominations... and arguments could be made as to any of them having a path to win, too. (Personally, my fingers are crossed for Gosling.)

The big question is who joins them in the fifth slot. Could Colman Domingo double down with a second nomination this year for The Color Purple? Could Paul Mescal follow up his very deserved surprise nomination last year with another for All of Us Strangers? Or maybe Dominic Sessa gets in for his debut performance in The Holdovers? Whatever happens, this looks like a category for the ages. 

(A) list of predictions:

Robert DeNiro (Killers of the Flower Moon), Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer), Ryan Gosling (Barbie), Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things), Dominic Sessa (The Holdovers)

(B) list:
Colman Domingo (The Color Purple), Paul Mescal (All of Us Strangers), Willem Dafoe (Poor Things), Jon Magaro (Past Lives), Charles Melton (May/December), Glenn Howerton (Blackberry)

Best Original Screenplay

Warner Brothers has announced that they will be campaigning the Barbie screenplay in this category, despite the fact that it is based on pre-existing property (the Academy tends to consider anything that even has a character that's adapted from previous material as adapted). It's unclear whether the Academy will accept the designation — but if they do, Barbie scribes (and real-life couple) Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach have an excellent shot at both becoming first-time Oscar winners at the same time. (Their two sons will be so proud!)

(A) list of predictions:

Anatomy of a Fall (Justine Triet & Arthur Harari), Barbie (Greta Gerwig & Noah Baumbach), The Holdovers (David Hemingson), Maestro (Bradley Cooper & Josh Singer), Past Lives (Celine Song)

(B) list:

Asteroid City (Wes Anderson & Roman Coppola), May/December (Samy Burch), Air (Alex Convery), Saltburn (Emerald Fennell), Fair Play (Chloe Domont)

Best Adapted Screenplay

A much more crowded affair than its "original" counterpart, the best adapted screenplay category definitely already has a few sure shots in the scribes behind Killers of the Flowers Moon (Eric Roth and Martin Scorsese, the latter of whom has never won an Oscar for writing), Oppenheimer (Christopher Nolan, who has still never won an Oscar for anything) and Poor Things (Tony McNamara, who somehow lost his 2019 Oscar nomination for his brilliant script for The Favourite to... the boys who wrote Green Book).

Beyond those 3, there's at least 7 screenplays in serious contention for the final two slots (and perhaps 8 if Barbie ends up being qualified to run here).

(A) list of predictions:

All of Us Strangers (Andrew Haigh), American Fiction (Cord Jefferson), Killers of the Flower Moon (Eric Roth & Martin Scorsese), Oppenheimer (Christopher Nolan), Poor Things (Tony McNamara)

(B) list:

Origin (Ava DuVernay & Isabel Wikerson), The Zone of Interest (Jonathan Glazer), Priscilla (Sofia Coppola), Are You There God? It's Me, Margaret (Kelly Fremon Craig), Spiderman: Across the Spiderverse (Phil Lord, Christopher Miller & Dave Callaham).